Finished 19/02/2023

How the World Really Works

Vaclav Smil

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Recommended by Incassaforte, interesting because it explains how the things that help us survive work and how important the resource problems we are facing are. Also seen on Hacker News

The history of life on Earth is a history of energy conversions. And the history of humanity is the history of a species that has become more and more efficient in exploiting free energy. So, next time you flip a switch or take a bite of food, take a second to think about all the processes and energy conversions that went into those seemingly small luxuries.

I understand why Incassaforte recommended it; it presents the same ideas as Marco. The world runs on oil and fossil fuels, and replacing them is not that easy

Notes

A brief history of energy production (that is, what makes work possible, an abstract notion) from the beginning of Earth. Very interesting; in recent years we have increased production, but nothing like the boost from the discovery of coal and then oil
The vast majority of our energy production is based on fossil fuels, which are finite and polluting. There are plans to reduce them to stay carbon neutral by 2050
This is also possible for electricity, which is currently partly produced with nuclear and renewable sources, but there are still no solutions to store it in large quantities
As for gasoline for transport, current batteries are more efficient but still not enough to replace hydrocarbons. There will be slow progress with many obstacles; a magic wand will not do
But there are no alternatives to the four pillars of our productive society: ammonia, steel, cement, and plastic.
Fossil fuels are also very important for producing our food. In recent decades we have reduced the share of people suffering from hunger from 65% in the 1950s to 10% today by increasing production and efficiency with machines and fertilizers that require a lot of fuel. Wheat production, for example, went from 10 minutes per kilogram of flour in the 1800s to 2 seconds today with machines that do everything.
Nitrogen is fundamental for accelerating crop production and we have plenty of it, but paradoxically it is hard to obtain in nature (since it is N2 in the atmosphere). You can use animal fertilizer, or grow soybeans and other tubers that have an enzyme that splits nitrogen, fertilizing the soil for later crops. But synthesized ammonia developed in the 1900s solved this problem in a revolutionary way
First pillar, ammonia (it should be ammoniaca in Italian). Without it, half the world would not be alive, since it is needed to fertilize crops. It was not easy to find in nature, but it is synthesized from atmospheric nitrogen with a very energy-intensive process that remains irreplaceable.
Second pillar, plastic. Created in the early 1900s with a process that heats hydrocarbons, it is part of essentially everything we use every day and is irreplaceable, even though it is polluting and energy-hungry. Literally everything we use generally has some plastic component.
Third pillar, steel. It uses iron, of which we have ample resources, and is often recyclable (about 50%), but its production requires a lot of electricity. It is a fundamental component for cities and cars, as it withstands pressure and impacts very well
Fourth pillar, cement. It does not consume a huge amount of energy, but we produce billions of tons for roads, foundations, and bridges, and it is often reinforced with steel. Nothing has the same properties at the same cost…
So in the end, green energy examples like wind turbines and electric cars all, in one way or another, rely on the four pillars.
A history of the evolution of globalization, which required massive amounts of fossil fuels, starting with engines, ships, airplanes, the internet, everything. Very interesting; it explores changes across centuries
A somewhat messy chapter introduces risk perception. Despite the fact that many people smoke, drink, drive, and are exposed to smog that causes millions of deaths, they fear vaccines and nuclear energy. Understandable, but it is not entirely clear how this fits into the argument. With careful calculations, he shows how common fears like terrorism, natural disasters, and plane crashes are statistically irrelevant for our life expectancy. Even driving, which is the most dangerous activity, is not that statistically impactful
A very interesting chapter on the resources we are wasting. Surprisingly, oxygen stays more or less stable in the long run; whether there are trees or not to balance it, we have an immense amount and would run out in thousands of years. Water, instead, is a resource we mismanage, as is food, which requires a lot of space and resources and must be improved with even more efficient techniques.
The future. The problem with these predictions for 2030 or 2050 is that we have no idea how to forecast systems this complex, and we could be completely wrong in our expectations, just as people in 1970 were wrong about today
Moreover, simplifying a solution with idealistic deadlines and limits does not solve the situation, which requires tremendous efforts and likely impossible ones for developing nations
The author concludes that we will have to think about the future world with practical, concrete solutions, starting by boosting renewables with the nonrenewable materials we have and developing new technologies that will not work miracles but will still keep us moving in the right direction.